Monday, June 11, 2012

9 Predictions till next election — Part II

<< Link to Part1

7. Extremism and terrorism will remain a major problem
The biggest ideological battle going on today is between the moderates and the extremists. Pakistan's involvement in the Afghan war in 1980s and in the first decade of 2000 created a plethora of extremist ideological schools. These schools attracted thousands of youngsters and teenagers in the name of fighting an holy war. The primary thesis which these extremists use is to equate moderations with modernism and then equate modernism as a western concept which finally leads to infidelity. Their poignant speeches and nauseas overwhelm the acumen of a common uneducated teenager.

Furthermore, it should be noted that it's not poverty which drives a common Pakistani towards extremist ideologies. In fact, it is the strength of their self-created myths which actuates the commoners. The presumption that poverty leads to extremism is a fallacy. Anti-extremists forces must analysis their fundamental theories in order to effectively tackle this problem. 

Unfortunately, the moderate schools in Pakistan are cowered by the extremist's rhetoric. Most of them leave the country, stop speaking and writing, or just become silent. We can count outspoken moderates on our fingertips, e.g. Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy, Dr. Mubarrak Ali, and Asma Jahngeer. A shrinking school of moderate ideology allows the extremists to fill up the gap. 

The media also doesn't project this moderate school of thought in their programs. They project Taliban as the winning force in Afghanistan. A winning Taliban in Afghanistan boosts the moral of the Taliban in Pakistan, allowing wide spread terrorism activity in the country. Intellectuals such as Ahmed Rasid and Tariq Ali are totally excommunicated by the mainstream media. Anti-Americanism envenoms the electronic landscape, propagandising against any measure the Unites States takes in relation to Pakistan. Self-tagged intellectual such as Haroon-ur-rasheed, Irfan Siddiqui and Ansar Abbasi completely distort facts and figures to proves their respective point of views. The media anchors also need education and improvement in their intellectual capacity.

The growing influence of Taliban and Al-Qeada in Pakistan, and the Bin Laden's existence in Pakistan clearly shows that Pakistan is fighting a losing war in which the moderates are gradually waning out. The future looks dark for the moderate forces in Pakistan.

8. Islamists will assert more power
Although it is true that right-wingers have never won a majority (except MMA's government in NWFP during Gen. Mussarraf rule), Dr. Mubarak Ali rightly says, that most of the centrist and leftist parties in Pakistan essentially have an Islamic bent in their manifestos. for example, PTI speaks for an Islamic welfare state; PPP slogan says "Islam is our religion, Socialism is are government"; PML(N) calls the nuclear bombs as a victory not just for Pakistan, but for the Islamic world. Such rhetoric are no more different from right-wing rhetoric. All of them use religion for their personal political gains.

In the next elections, political parties will try to attract the growing Islamised population of Pakistan into their political camps. Whether MMA (or any of its derivatives) wins or PML(N) wins, people from the rows of political Islam will assert more power in the parliament.

In KPK province, ANP will face a fiasco. The rising Islamic fronts will completely overwhelm the mindset of the common Pashtoons. Moreover, the secular ideology of ANP wasn't able to improve the standard of living in the province. Changing the name of a province is meaningless without economic benefits for the commoners. The Islamic front will promise a better life in both worlds, which is a more viable option for the unemployed middle-class.

The Hazara community in KPK is agonised  by PML(N) support for renaming N.W.F.P to KPK. They will definitely look for alternatives such as PTI or any other party that provide them identity within KPK.

All in all, the Islamist "golden age" will come in KPK.

9. 'PTI's tsunami' will come to a halt in many parts of the country
PTI's tsunami is more of a media sponsored drama than a real mass movement. The drama is about to end for sure. As PTI is a social media driven party, considering the google trends graph for PTI proofs this:

Graph plotted by Google Trends (11/6/2012)

Analysing the part of the graph in the black box shows two phenomena. Firstly, the search volume index met its spike at the end of December 2011. After this, we observe a steady decline in PTI's search volume. This shows that that teenagers, and other fans are losing hope in PTI's popular rhetoric. Secondly, the news references volume has remain static along this period showing that media tried its best to project PTI and Imran Khan. With all this media deception, the search results for this internet party have fallen down.

PTI also fails to interpret the 18th amendment in its true light. The party pays no heed to the nationalist tendencies in Balochistan and Sindh. They tried to exhibit Pakistan's flag in Quetta, but failed to do so. Only a few Pakistani flags were visible in the PTI's Quetta rally. PTI fails to understand the trouble the common Balochis have with the idea of Pakistan as a federation. The party fails to understand that the 18th amendment has altered the federal character of the state. 

Likewise in Sindh, PTI ridicules MQM and PPP. They fail to understand the mindset of the urdu-speaking middle-class and Sindhi nationalist. They go on with their 'Utopian rhetoric', in which Imran Khan is depicted as a figure between Jinnah and Iqbal.

The ludic PTI will find its adobe in the lands of Northern and Central Punjab and KPK. Their uproar will find no support in Sindh or Balochistan.

No comments:

Post a Comment