An Orwellian Analysis of Imran Khan

Imran Khan in the animal farms

Whether it is Fatalism or a curse of history, Imran Khan can be characterised either as the simple-hearted animal or as their leader.

George Orwell in his well-known book, Animal Farms, writes about a farm owned by humans that was overtaken by animals. The leaders of the animals were the pigs. Their polemic against the human owners made the simple-hearted animals believe that humans are the source of their suffering. The polemic was highly effective, and the animals were able to arrange a successful coup d'etat against their masters. Hence the eulogized Kingdom of Heaven, where all animals will have a equal share of work and equal standard of living started to take shape. Unfortunately, the end was as tragic as the beginning. The pigs - who initially were the harbingers of peace and prosperity - later on became the new kings, while the simple-hearted animals still suffered. The cycle of suffering perpetuated. 

Whether it is Fatalism or a curse of history, Imran Khan can be characterised either as the simple-hearted animal or as their leader. For the middle class, he still rings in their hearts. His ferocious stance against corruption even make his arch-enemies support him. His idea of justice being at the heart of a progressive society appeals to the common sense. Similar to the "first birth" of the animal leaders, he believes that the system is rotten to its core and has to be changed immediately. 

The same Khan, acts like the simple-hearted animal when it comes to international and domestic issues. He preaches the wrath of dictatorship, on his infamous "Dharna Truck", standing besides people like Sheikh Rasheed, Khurshid Kusuri, Javeed Hashmi, and Shah Mehmood. Similar to the simple-hearted Orwellian animal, Khan continues to hearken to them, although they represent the same Orwellian humans that he is fighting against.

Hashmi's betrayal can not be erased from the annals of Pakistani politics. Imran in his dream, like Julius Ceaser, would had have said "You too Brutus!?". I hope he doesn't have to repeat it again.

When is comes to terrorism, Mr. Imran Khan seems to be chained in the classical paradox of tolerance, i.e. should one tolerate intolerance if intolerance would destroy the possibility of tolerance? Without any doubt, this is a difficult problem for everyone including him. The simple-hearted Imran Khan tried to become the modern day Gandhi and preached dialogue as the key to peace. Taliban even nominated him as their spokesperson, when the government started the dialogue process. 

The terrorist kept on destroying our cities, and he remained disillusioned and kept on presenting that war on terror is not our war. It was not until the horrendous attack on the army public school in Peshawar, that he finally made up his mind, or maybe forced to make up his mind, as the military started a massive operation to eradicate this evil from our soil.

The final metamorphosis has happened lately. Imran Khan kept on blaming a private television station and news group for orchestrating electoral rigging and announced its boycott. He developed the story of 35 punctures, that has become an idiom in itself. Then, he said that it was all a mistake and apologised for it. Later on, he said it wasn't 35 punctures, rather 70 punctures. God knows, what's to follow. Just like the "second birth" of the animal leader, Imran khan has deviated from his idea of justice.

Justice in its very essence its defined as truth. A person who can not keep his words, might also fall short on creating a just society. Like the animal leader, he plays with words and fools the simple-hearted animals.

Machiavelli wrote in The Prince, "A prince never lacks legitimate reasons to break his promise." The "second birth" of Imran Khan can be characterised precisely what Machiavelli wrote a century ago. I would say, "A prince never lacks legitimate reasons to break his word".

I hope that we do not see an Orwellian end to our political story, where the simple-hearted animals get ruled by pigs who are at par with their human counter-parts.

9 Predictions till next election — Part II

<< Link to Part1

7. Extremism and terrorism will remain a major problem

The biggest ideological battle going on today is between the moderates and the extremists. Pakistan's involvement in the Afghan war in 1980s and in the first decade of 2000 created a plethora of extremist ideological schools. These schools attracted thousands of youngsters and teenagers in the name of fighting an holy war. The primary thesis which these extremists use is to equate moderations with modernism and then equate modernism as a western concept which finally leads to infidelity. Their poignant speeches and nauseas overwhelm the acumen of a common uneducated teenager.

Furthermore, it should be noted that it's not poverty which drives a common Pakistani towards extremist ideologies. In fact, it is the strength of their self-created myths which actuates the commoners. The presumption that poverty leads to extremism is a fallacy. Anti-extremists forces must analysis their fundamental theories in order to effectively tackle this problem. 

Unfortunately, the moderate schools in Pakistan are cowered by the extremist's rhetoric. Most of them leave the country, stop speaking and writing, or just become silent. We can count outspoken moderates on our fingertips, e.g. Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy, Dr. Mubarrak Ali, and Asma Jahngeer. A shrinking school of moderate ideology allows the extremists to fill up the gap. 

The media also doesn't project this moderate school of thought in their programs. They project Taliban as the winning force in Afghanistan. A winning Taliban in Afghanistan boosts the moral of the Taliban in Pakistan, allowing wide spread terrorism activity in the country. Intellectuals such as Ahmed Rasid and Tariq Ali are totally excommunicated by the mainstream media. Anti-Americanism envenoms the electronic landscape, propagandising against any measure the Unites States takes in relation to Pakistan. Self-tagged intellectual such as Haroon-ur-rasheed, Irfan Siddiqui and Ansar Abbasi completely distort facts and figures to proves their respective point of views. The media anchors also need education and improvement in their intellectual capacity.

The growing influence of Taliban and Al-Qeada in Pakistan, and the Bin Laden's existence in Pakistan clearly shows that Pakistan is fighting a losing war in which the moderates are gradually waning out. The future looks dark for the moderate forces in Pakistan.

8. Islamists will assert more power

Although it is true that right-wingers have never won a majority (except MMA's government in NWFP during Gen. Mussarraf rule), Dr. Mubarak Ali rightly says, that most of the centrist and leftist parties in Pakistan essentially have an Islamic bent in their manifestos. for example, PTI speaks for an Islamic welfare state; PPP slogan says "Islam is our religion, Socialism is are government"; PML(N) calls the nuclear bombs as a victory not just for Pakistan, but for the Islamic world. Such rhetoric are no more different from right-wing rhetoric. All of them use religion for their personal political gains.

In the next elections, political parties will try to attract the growing Islamised population of Pakistan into their political camps. Whether MMA (or any of its derivatives) wins or PML(N) wins, people from the rows of political Islam will assert more power in the parliament.

In KPK province, ANP will face a fiasco. The rising Islamic fronts will completely overwhelm the mindset of the common Pashtoons. Moreover, the secular ideology of ANP wasn't able to improve the standard of living in the province. Changing the name of a province is meaningless without economic benefits for the commoners. The Islamic front will promise a better life in both worlds, which is a more viable option for the unemployed middle-class.

The Hazara community in KPK is agonised  by PML(N) support for renaming N.W.F.P to KPK. They will definitely look for alternatives such as PTI or any other party that provide them identity within KPK.

All in all, the Islamist "golden age" will come in KPK.

9. 'PTI's tsunami' will come to a halt in many parts of the country

PTI's tsunami is more of a media sponsored drama than a real mass movement. The drama is about to end for sure. As PTI is a social media driven party, considering the google trends graph for PTI proofs this:

Graph plotted by Google Trends (11/6/2012)

Analysing the part of the graph in the black box shows two phenomena. Firstly, the search volume index met its spike at the end of December 2011. After this, we observe a steady decline in PTI's search volume. This shows that that teenagers, and other fans are losing hope in PTI's popular rhetoric. Secondly, the news references volume has remain static along this period showing that media tried its best to project PTI and Imran Khan. With all this media deception, the search results for this internet party have fallen down.

PTI also fails to interpret the 18th amendment in its true light. The party pays no heed to the nationalist tendencies in Balochistan and Sindh. They tried to exhibit Pakistan's flag in Quetta, but failed to do so. Only a few Pakistani flags were visible in the PTI's Quetta rally. PTI fails to understand the trouble the common Balochis have with the idea of Pakistan as a federation. The party fails to understand that the 18th amendment has altered the federal character of the state. 

Likewise in Sindh, PTI ridicules MQM and PPP. They fail to understand the mindset of the urdu-speaking middle-class and Sindhi nationalist. They go on with their 'Utopian rhetoric', in which Imran Khan is depicted as a figure between Jinnah and Iqbal.

The ludic PTI will find its adobe in the lands of Northern and Central Punjab and KPK. Their uproar will find no support in Sindh or Balochistan.

Senate Election - Effects in Future and Present Events

Election results for the senate election have been announced.

Senate results for 2012 elections. Source: DAWN

The PPP and PML-N, now, in toto have 55 seats, which is about 54% of the total senate strength. In the short run this wouldn't create any problem, but a democratic change can only come when a party occupies both houses of the national legislature.

The senators elected in 2012 will remain in their office till 2017 as the tenure of a senator is of 5 years. Let's assume that PTI (The movement of Justice) wins the 2013 election on the basis of bringing a change. The question is:

 "Will PTI be able to bring a democratic change when it doesn't have a single seat in senate?"